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Match facts
Tournament
Montreal
Category
Masters1000
Round
Quarterfinals
Surface
hard
Key factors
Surface
Brandon Nakashima wins +24% more on this surface
Recent form
L. Darderi 3 of last 5
W N. Borges 2–1 W J. Shang 2–1 W G. Diallo 1–0 L D. Svrčina 0–0 L A. Blockx 1–2B. Nakashima 4 of last 5
W A. Rinderknech 2–1 W T. Droguet 2–1 W D. Altmaier 2–0 L T. Fritz 1–2 W A. de Minaur 2–0Head to head
L
Vienna · Oct 2025 · hard
0–2
W
Hamburg · May 2025 · clay
2–1
W/L from L. Darderi's perspective.
Win probability
L. DarderiB. Nakashima
62%
Model confidence
Why the model thinks so
- Dominant on this surface (54% win rate)
- Better recent form
- Better on break points
L. Darderi
3.00
consensus price, since opening
B. Nakashima
1.40
consensus price, since opening
Match winnerdecimal
Bookmaker
L. Darderi
B. Nakashima
Consensus
3.00
1.40
B. Nakashima at 1.40
80%
win rate at similar odds (15 matches) · market implies 71% · value signal