Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**New England has the home-field edge and an absolutely brutal H2H record against Houston**, but the Dynamo are humming right now with four wins in their last five. 🔥 This is a clash between momentum and familiarity.
New England's form is solid but patchy — they've mixed two wins with a couple of stalemates, and injuries to **L. Campana** and **A. Farrell** sting. Houston, meanwhile, just demolished Austin 3-0 and hasn't lost in five. The question is whether Gillette's advantage quiets the visitors' offensive spark.
Key storylines:
- **M. Zambrano** and **B. Raines** will need to control Houston's dangerous right flank, where **M. Arana** has been lively
- **W. Harris** leads the New England attack and has thrived at home; Houston's **E. Sviatchenko** and **F. Andrade** are solid but could be exposed
- New England's dominant H2H record suggests they know how to handle this team, but Houston's current run is no fluke
Expected lineups:
- **New England Revolution**: D. Parisian, E. Kohler, W. Sands, P. Miller, T. Beason, C. Gil, B. Raines, L. Langoni, A. Yusuf, M. Zambrano, W. Harris
- **Houston Dynamo**: B. Gillingham, A. Resch, F. Andrade, F. Negri, E. Sviatchenko, L. Ennali, J. McGlynn, Artur, H. Herrera, M. Arana, E. Ponce
Prediction:
**New England 2–1 Houston.** Home turf and historical edge tilt it slightly their way, but Houston will make it interesting. ⚽
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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