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Luís Castro
Grêmio
São Paulo
Grêmio
4-1-4-1 · 4-2-3-1
São Paulo
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
415617 EUR · live
Home
1.02 · implied 98.0%
60.1%
-37.9 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
23.9%
+23.8 vs price
Draw
60.0 · implied 1.7%
16.0%
+14.3 vs price
Half time
9355 EUR · live
Draw
1.55 · implied 64.5%
70.8%
+6.3 vs price
Home
5.0 · implied 20.0%
17.5%
-2.5 vs price
Away
7.0 · implied 14.3%
11.7%
-2.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
143480 EUR · live
Under
1.35 · implied 74.1%
78.8%
+4.7 vs price
Over
3.75 · implied 26.7%
21.2%
-5.5 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
5002 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
87.8%
-11.2 vs price
Over
65.0 · implied 1.5%
12.2%
+10.6 vs price
13 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
Half-time · 0–1
45'+2
⚽
M. Antônio · assist Luciano0–1
45'+5
M. Villasanti · Argument
46'
🔁
F. Amuzu ◂ J. Cabral
48'
⚽
Wallace · assist C. Vinícius1–1
54'
🔁
Dodi ◂ J. Nardoni
70'
🔁
D. Bobadilla ◂ Danielzinho
71'
🔁
Cauly ◂ Ferreira
75'
Luciano · Argument
77'
🔁
A. Silva ◂ J. Calleri
78'
🔁
M. Braithwaite ◂ C. Vinícius
81'
Diego Caito · Foul
86'
⚽
C. Pavón2–1
89'
🔁
G. Santana ◂ P. Maia
89'
🔁
Victor Sá ◂ Wendell
Full-time · 2–1
90'+1
Marlon · Argument
90'+1
🔁
L. Pérez ◂ C. Pavón
90'+1
🔁
W. Kannemann ◂ M. Villasanti
90'+2
A. Silva · Argument
90'+5
R. Arboleda · Argument
90'+5
W. Kannemann · Argument
Coaches
Luís CastroDorival Júnior 
Recent form
GrêmioWHMirassol1-0
DAMirassol1-1
LHBolívar0-1
DHFluminense1-1
LABolívar2-3
São PauloDAFlamengo1-1
LHAthletico1-2
LARemo0-1
WHBoston River2-0
DHBotafogo1-1
Where to watch
Arena Sport 4 SRB
GloboplayPremiere
Arena Sport 4 SRB
Arena Sport 4 SRB
Arena Sport 4 SRB
Match facts
Stadium
Arena do Grêmio
City
Porto Alegre
Referee
Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento
Kickoff
08 Aug, 19:00 UTC
Competition
Brasileirão Serie A
Highlights & clips
Grêmio
4-1-4-1 · 4-2-3-1
São Paulo
1
Weverton
7.3
27
Diego Caito
6.6
6
G. Martins
6.9
82
Wallace
8.1
23
Marlon
6.3
19
E. Noriega
7.3
4
W. Kannemann
↑ 90'
33
L. Pérez
↑ 90'
17
Dodi
6.4
↑ 54'
9
F. Amuzu
6.9
↑ 46'
22
M. Braithwaite
6.6
↑ 78'
23
Rafael
7.0
19
L. Ramon
6.5
5
R. Arboleda
6.5
54
L. Osorio
6.0
27
Victor Sá
6.5
↑ 89'
16
D. Bobadilla
6.3
↑ 70'
43
G. Santana
6.6
↑ 89'
8
M. Antônio
7.6
10
Luciano
7.0
80
Cauly
6.5
↑ 71'
17
A. Silva
6.5
↑ 77'
Substitutes
12GG. Grando
14DM. Rocha
3DW. Leonardo
38DC. Paulista
7MC. Pavón↓ 90'8.3
20MM. Villasanti↓ 90'7.0
5MJ. Nardoni↓ 54'6.4
37MG. Mec
95FC. Vinícius↓ 78'7.9
77FJ. Cabral↓ 46'6.6
99FJ. Enamorado
30FM. Nascimento
Coach: Luís Castro
Substitutes
31GC. Coronel
18DWendell↓ 89'6.2
20DA. Buta
35DSabino
12DI. Borduchi
22DD. Duarte
11MFerreira↓ 71'7.4
94MDanielzinho↓ 70'6.5
29MP. Maia↓ 89'6.3
34MTetê
28MNewton
9FJ. Calleri↓ 77'6.2
Coach: Dorival Júnior
Top stats
48%Possession52%
1.62Expected goals (xG)1.37
12Total shots18
5Shots on target5
3Big chances5
7Corners7
Shots
3Shots off target8
4Blocked shots5
8Shots inside box12
4Shots outside box6
0Hit woodwork1
1Big chances scored1
2Big chances missed4
0.28Goals prevented0.13
Attack
20Touches in box22
54Final third entries43
2Offsides2
19Free kicks12
2Fouled in final third1
Passing
421Passes462
364Accurate passes392
38/63 (60%)Long balls14/36 (39%)
4/15 (27%)Crosses9/19 (47%)
10Throw-ins12
Duels
55Duels48
31/54 (57%)Ground duels24/55 (44%)
13/26 (50%)Aerial duels12/20 (60%)
7/12 (58%)Dribbles4/7 (57%)
3Dispossessed4
Defending
7Tackles8
86Tackles won75
7Interceptions4
21Clearances21
38Recoveries38
Discipline
12Fouls19
4Yellow cards3
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
2Big saves2
6Goal kicks5
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 44 bookmakers
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 58% · 1.65 @ Interwetten
1X2Draw 31% · 3.20 @ Interwetten
CornersOver 9.5 corners 51% · 1.98 @ Pinnacle
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 78% · 1.23 @ Novibet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 63% · 1.56 @ Pinnacle
BTTSBTTS: No 51% · 1.88 @ Pinnacle
1X2São Paulo to win 30% · 3.45 @ Pinnacle
Who winsGrêmio to win (DNB) 57% · 1.65 @ Betsson
1X2Grêmio to win 40% · 2.43 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 60% · 1.55 @ Interwetten
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 66% · 1.46 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.32
Grêmio ▲
2.91
Draw ▼
3.25
São Paulo ▼
Double Chanceconsensus
1.33
Grêmio or Draw ▲
1.33
Grêmio or São Paulo ▼
1.58
Draw or São Paulo ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.93
Yes ▲
1.80
No ▼
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.08
Over 0.50 ▲
7.06
Under 0.50 ▼
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.42
Over 1.50 ▲
2.80
Under 1.50 ▼
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.33
Over 2.50 ▲
1.60
Under 2.50 ▼
Total Goals 3.50consensus
4.28
Over 3.50 ▲
1.22
Under 3.50 ▼
Total Goals 4.50consensus
6.60
Over 4.50
1.11
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.60
Grêmio ▲
2.12
São Paulo ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.01
Over 4.50
17.00
Under 4.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.05
Over 5.50 ▼
9.83
Under 5.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.12
Over 6.50 ▼
5.38
Under 6.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.26
Over 7.50 ▼
3.41
Under 7.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.49
Over 8.50 ▼
2.40
Under 8.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.85
Over 9.50 ▲
1.84
Under 9.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.34
Over 10.50 ▼
1.52
Under 10.50 ▼
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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