Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Botafogo's on a roll, and Fluminense can't find the back of the net — this Rio derby's got a big talent gap right now.** 🔥 The home side's won three of their last five, while the visitors have drawn four straight and lost to Vasco twice. That's a pretty wild swing in momentum.
Botafogo's defence has been solid, but they're missing **J. Santos** and **K. Pantaleão** to injury. Fluminense are dealing with a way bigger injury crisis — **A. Carlos**, **John Kennedy**, **J. Freytes**, **J. Millán**, and **T. Silva** are all out. That's brutal depth-wise.
Key storylines:
- **Botafogo** looking to build on three wins in five and push for the title race with a statement win at home
- **Fluminense** struggling badly for goals (one in last five) and down half their squad — they'll be desperate to break the draw streak
- Head-to-head tells the story: Botafogo leads 5–4 over the last decade, and they've got the clear edge here
Expected lineups:
- **Botafogo**: Raúl, A. Telles, G. Justino, Ythallo, Vitinho, K. Toledo, L. Villalba, M. Martins, D. Santos, K. Barría, L. Emanuel
- **Fluminense**: Fábio, Guga, Ignácio, S. Xavier, J. Fidelis, Martinelli, K. Serna, G. Cano, Nonato, K. Samuel, João Neto
Prediction:
**Botafogo 2–0 Fluminense.** Home side's in better shape and Fluminense can't score — this should be a comfortable night at Nilton Santos. 🎯
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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