Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
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**Ligue 2's new season kicks off with a classic relegation-zone vs. mid-table tussle**, and Rodez come in heavy favorites at home. 🔴
Rodez showed serious teeth in pre-season (3W-1D-1L) despite that thumping from Montpellier, while Laval are stuck in neutral—one win in their last three and leaky on the road. Home-field advantage in round 1 counts.
Key storylines:
- **Rodez's backline** (Galves, Magnin, Laurent anchoring a 5-3-2) should suffocate Laval's wide play and keep **Camara** and **Houdayer** at arm's length
- **Younoussa and Baldé** leading the Rodez press up top will hunt possession early; Laval need **Sellouki** to control tempo or fold
- Opening day jitters for both, but **Rodez's home record** in pre-season suggests they've got this dialed in
Expected lineups:
- **Rodez AF**: Braat, Galves, Magnin, Laurent, Lipinski, Ponti, Trouillet, Correia, Younoussa, Baldé, Nagera
- **Stade Lavallois**: Samassa, Kouassi, Bianda, Ouaneh, Tavares, Sanna, Sellouki, Thomas, Montet, Camara, Houdayer
Prediction:
**Rodez 2-0 Lavallois**. Home side's shape and ruthlessness against a brittle Laval defense. 💪
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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