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John Eustace
Derby County
Lincoln City
Derby County
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2
Lincoln City
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
76943 EUR · live
Away
1.04 · implied 96.2%
75.1%
-21.0 vs price
Home
130.0 · implied 0.8%
19.0%
+18.2 vs price
Draw
11.0 · implied 9.1%
5.9%
-3.2 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
728 EUR
Under
2.22 · implied 45.0%
68.1%
+23.1 vs price
Over
1.82 · implied 54.9%
32.4%
-22.5 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
1994 EUR · live
Under
1.89 · implied 52.9%
92.8%
+39.9 vs price
Over
2.1 · implied 47.6%
7.2%
-40.4 vs price
11 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
3'
⚽
B. House · assist V. Ivan0–1
23'
⚽
D. Jefferies · assist F. Draper0–2
32'
A. Reach · Foul
35'
L. Travis · Foul
Half-time · 1–2
45'+1
⚽
S. Szmodics1–2
46'
🔁
D. Sanderson ◂ M. Clarke
48'
B. House · Foul
63'
🔁
C. Forsyth ◂ C. Taylor
63'
🔁
M. Johnston ◂ C. Taylor
63'
🔁
F. Bilbija ◂ O. Fraulo
67'
🔁
R. Towler ◂ D. Jefferies
79'
🔁
M. Melia ◂ B. House
79'
🔁
R. Hackett-Fairchild ◂ R. Street
79'
🔁
I. Olaofe ◂ F. Draper
80'
🔁
L. Salvesen ◂ S. Szmodics
88'
🔁
C. Elder ◂ A. Reach
Full-time · 1–2
Coaches
John EustaceTom Shaw 
Recent form
Derby CountyDARotherham United1-1
LABurton Albion0-1
WAMansfield Town3-1
LHValencia1-2
LHSC Freiburg1-3
Lincoln CityLABarnsley0-3
WADoncaster Rovers1-0
LAGrimsby Town1-5
LALeyton Orient0-2
WABoston United1-0
Where to watch
Diema Sport 3 HDPlay Diema Xtra
Startimes Sports Life
StarTimes App
StarTimes AppStartimes Sports Life
StarTimes App
Nova Sport 4
Sky Sports+
StarTimes AppStartimes Sports Life
StarTimes AppStartimes Sports Life
Arena Sport 5 HR
Sky Sports+
StarTimes AppStartimes Sports Life
StarTimes AppStartimes Sports Life
StarTimes App
StarTimes App
StarTimes AppStartimes Sports Life
StarTimes AppStartimes Sports Life
StarTimes AppStartimes Sports Life
Nova Sport 4
StarTimes AppStartimes Sports Life
Match facts
Stadium
Pride Park Stadium
City
Derby
Referee
Josh Smith
Kickoff
08 Aug, 14:00 UTC
Competition
Carabao Cup
Highlights & clips
Derby County
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2
Lincoln City
1
J. W. Zetterström
7.3
23
J. Ward
5.9
6
S. K. Langås
6.3
28
D. Sanderson
6.8
↑ 46'
3
C. Forsyth
6.9
↑ 63'
22
M. Johnston
6.9
↑ 63'
27
L. Travis
7.2
15
L. Salvesen
6.3
↑ 80'
8
B. Clark
6.4
13
F. Bilbija
6.8
↑ 63'
9
C. Morris
6.7
1
G. Wickens
6.7
2
T. Darikwa
6.9
22
T. Hamer
6.5
25
D. Elerewe
7.0
20
C. Elder
↑ 88'
6
R. Towler
6.8
↑ 67'
14
C. McGrandles
7.1
24
V. Ivan
7.2
7
R. Hackett-Fairchild
6.8
↑ 79'
19
I. Olaofe
6.5
↑ 79'
10
M. Melia
6.4
↑ 79'
Substitutes
31GJ. Vickers
5DM. Clarke↓ 46'6.5
11MS. Szmodics↓ 80'7.6
18MC. Taylor↓ 63'6.2
29MO. Fraulo↓ 63'6.2
33MC. Taylor↓ 63'6.2
40MC. Allen
41MC. Smith
37MO. Eames
Coach: John Eustace
Top stats
71%Possession29%
0.0Expected goals (xG, estimated)0.0
8Total shots14
4Shots on target4
0Big chances2
3Corners6
Shots
1Shots off target6
3Blocked shots4
3Shots inside box10
5Shots outside box4
0Hit woodwork0
0Big chances scored1
0Big chances missed1
Attack
12Touches in box24
51Final third entries53
1Offsides3
12Free kicks12
2Fouled in final third2
Passing
540Passes218
461Accurate passes145
21/51 (41%)Long balls22/62 (35%)
6/26 (23%)Crosses6/14 (43%)
29Throw-ins25
Duels
49Duels51
35/69 (51%)Ground duels34/69 (49%)
13/29 (45%)Aerial duels17/30 (57%)
4/13 (31%)Dribbles2/13 (15%)
11Dispossessed8
Defending
19Tackles20
63Tackles won75
1Interceptions7
28Clearances32
40Recoveries45
Discipline
12Fouls12
1Yellow cards2
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
9Goal kicks8
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 33 bookmakers
BTTSBoth teams to score 57% · 1.68 @ 1xBet
Who winsDerby to win (DNB) 63% · 1.50 @ Betway
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 55% · 1.81 @ 1xBet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 60% · 1.62 @ Unibet
1X2Derby to win 47% · 2.05 @ Bwin
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 77% · 1.27 @ Unibet
1X2Draw 25% · 3.62 @ 1xBet
1X2Lincoln to win 27% · 3.71 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 62% · 1.53 @ Betway
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 51% · 1.85 @ Pinnacle
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 66% · 1.42 @ Betano
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.86
Derby County ▲
3.49
Draw ▼
3.51
Lincoln City ▲
Double Chanceconsensus
1.28
Derby County or Draw ▲
1.25
Derby County or Lincoln City ▲
1.72
Draw or Lincoln City ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.64
Yes ▲
2.13
No ▼
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.03
Over 0.50
10.31
Under 0.50 ▲
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.25
Over 1.50 ▲
3.80
Under 1.50 ▼
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.78
Over 2.50 ▲
1.99
Under 2.50 ▼
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.90
Over 3.50 ▲
1.39
Under 3.50 ▼
Total Goals 4.50consensus
5.25
Over 4.50 ▲
1.15
Under 4.50 ▼
Draw No Betconsensus
1.47
Derby County ▲
2.52
Lincoln City ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.01
Over 4.50
12.25
Under 4.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.06
Over 5.50 ▼
8.00
Under 5.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.16
Over 6.50 ▲
4.92
Under 6.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.31
Over 7.50 ▲
3.15
Under 7.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.54
Over 8.50 ▲
2.31
Under 8.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.91
Over 9.50 ▲
1.79
Under 9.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.47
Over 10.50 ▲
1.47
Under 10.50 ▼
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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