Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Burnley have looked dodgy in pre-season, but a Carabao opener at home should still be a Notts County problem.** 🔥 League Two's Magpies are scrambling — they've lost three of their last five and will be massive underdogs on turf moor.
Burnley's form is rough (0W, 2D, 3L), but dropping to the fourth tier in a cup tie is the kind of fixture where they reset. Notts County's winless streak and defensive frailties suggest they'll struggle with the step up in intensity.
Key storylines:
- **Burnley's midfield** — H. Mejbri and H. Ekdal need to control the tempo early and suffocate Notts County's creativity
- **Notts County's counter-threat** — L. Ndlovu and C. Grant are their best hope to spring anything on the break, but they'll rarely see the ball
- **Defensive solidity** — With J. Beyer and J. Cullen out, Burnley's back four (K. Walker, L. Pires, B. Humphreys) has to stay switched on, though Notts won't test them much
Expected lineups:
- **Burnley**: M. Weiss, K. Walker, L. Pires, B. Humphreys, H. Ekdal, H. Mejbri, J. Laurent, Z. Flemming, J. Banel, M. Edwards, J. Bruun Larsen
- **Notts County**: J. Belshaw, R. McDonald, J. Bedeau, L. Ness, L. Macari, J. Jones, N. Tsaroulla, T. Hall, J. Luker, C. Grant, L. Ndlovu
Prediction:
**Burnley 2-0 Notts County** — Burnley should cruise and restore some attacking rhythm. ⚽
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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