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Pablo Machin
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
Fagiano Okayama
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
132175 EUR · live
Home
1.03 · implied 97.1%
69.0%
-28.1 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
26.0%
+25.9 vs price
Draw
21.0 · implied 4.8%
6.2%
+1.5 vs price
Half time
908 EUR · live
Away
5.1 · implied 19.6%
74.6%
+55.0 vs price
Home
3.85 · implied 26.0%
16.9%
-9.1 vs price
Draw
1.81 · implied 55.2%
8.5%
-46.8 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
8731 EUR · live
Over
1.11 · implied 90.1%
80.1%
-10.0 vs price
Under
10.5 · implied 9.5%
19.9%
+10.4 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
1644 EUR · live
Under
1.95 · implied 51.3%
78.2%
+26.9 vs price
Over
1.99 · implied 50.3%
21.7%
-28.5 vs price
12 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
8'
⚽
N. Browne · assist Y. Suzuki0–1
20'
⚽
S. Sakuragawa · assist K. Okazawa1–1
24'
⚽
Y. Yokoyama · assist S. Kagawa2–1
Half-time · 2–1
46'
🔁
O. Alionço ◂ M. Matsumoto
58'
🔁
T. Yamane ◂ N. Browne
58'
🔁
S. Uejo ◂ Y. Yokoyama
58'
🔁
L. Fernandes ◂ S. Kagawa
67'
🔁
K. Ichimi ◂ Lucao
67'
🔁
Y. Kamiya ◂ E. Miyamoto
67'
🔁
A. Ohata ◂ N. Takahashi
75'
A. Ohata · Foul
79'
🔁
K. Kawano ◂ A. Esaka
79'
🔁
H. Okuda ◂ T. Nakamura
79'
🔁
T. Andrade ◂ S. Sakuragawa
87'
🔁
R. Sueyoshi ◂ K. Kawano
88'
🔁
H. Kida ◂ K. Okazawa
Full-time · 2–1
Coaches
Pablo MachinTakashi Kiyama 
Recent form
Cerezo OsakaWHBorussia Dortmund1-0
WHTochigi City FC1-0
WAFC Tokyo3-1
DHFC Tokyo2-2
WAFagiano Okayama3-2
Fagiano OkayamaLAFC Schalke 041-3
LASV Werder Bremen0-2
WHFC Kharkiv2-1
LASC Paderborn 071-3
LASV Wehen Wiesbaden0-2
Where to watch
DAZN
Match facts
Stadium
Yodokou Sakura Stadium
City
Osaka
Referee
Yoshimi Yamashita
Kickoff
08 Aug, 10:00 UTC
Competition
J1 League
Highlights & clips
Cerezo Osaka
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
Fagiano Okayama
23
K. Nakamura
6.9
27
D. Cools
6.6
44
S. Hatanaka
6.6
4
R. Inoue
7.7
16
H. Okuda
6.7
↑ 79'
5
H. Kida
6.5
↑ 88'
10
S. Tanaka
7.3
66
A. Ohata
6.6
↑ 67'
77
L. Fernandes
6.5
↑ 58'
7
S. Uejo
6.6
↑ 58'
11
T. Andrade
6.2
↑ 79'
13
S. Matsuda
6.8
6
H. Omori
6.9
48
Y. Tatsuta
6.4
43
Y. Suzuki
6.3
51
K. Shirai
7.1
80
O. Alionço
6.8
↑ 46'
33
Y. Kamiya
6.4
↑ 67'
88
T. Yamane
6.7
↑ 58'
10
S. Na
6.6
20
K. Kawano
6.2
↑ 79'
22
K. Ichimi
6.9
↑ 67'
Substitutes
31GK. Abe
22DN. Takahashi↓ 67'6.9
2DT. Nakamura↓ 79'6.6
97DT. Takahashi
14MY. Yokoyama↓ 58'8.1
28MK. Okazawa↓ 88'6.9
8MS. Kagawa↓ 58'6.7
41MY. Komi
9FS. Sakuragawa↓ 79'8.0
Coach: Pablo Machin
Substitutes
77GG. Kawanami
79MN. Browne↓ 58'7.4
41ME. Miyamoto↓ 67'7.0
17MR. Sueyoshi↑ 87'6.6
28MM. Matsumoto↓ 46'6.2
44MS. Mori
99FLucao↓ 67'6.1
8FA. Esaka↓ 79'6.1
5I. Shu
Coach: Takashi Kiyama
Top stats
50%Possession50%
0.0Expected goals (xG, estimated)0.0
6Total shots17
4Shots on target5
1Big chances1
5Corners8
Shots
1Shots off target10
1Blocked shots2
3Shots inside box13
3Shots outside box4
0Hit woodwork0
1Big chances scored0
0Big chances missed1
Attack
9Touches in box31
51Final third entries74
2Offsides6
10Free kicks14
1Fouled in final third2
Passing
410Passes397
313Accurate passes305
27/76 (36%)Long balls25/55 (45%)
4/16 (25%)Crosses7/29 (24%)
21Throw-ins24
Duels
50Duels50
30/56 (54%)Ground duels26/56 (46%)
20/45 (44%)Aerial duels25/45 (56%)
7/16 (44%)Dribbles2/9 (22%)
3Dispossessed6
Defending
13Tackles12
62Tackles won50
13Interceptions5
39Clearances20
43Recoveries45
Discipline
14Fouls10
1Yellow cards0
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
10Goal kicks3
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 66 bookmakers
CornersOver 9.5 corners 55% · 1.80 @ Bet365
CornersOver 8.5 corners 66% · 1.45 @ Novibet
Who winsCerezo Osaka to win (DNB) 67% · 1.64 @ 1xBet
1X2Cerezo Osaka to win 50% · 2.17 @ merkurxtip
BTTSBoth teams to score 55% · 1.78 @ betfair
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 53% · 1.95 @ betfair
1X2Draw 26% · 3.60 @ betfair
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 75% · 1.32 @ betfair
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 68% · 1.40 @ Bet365
1X2Okayama to win 24% · 3.65 @ betfair
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 56% · 1.80 @ Bet365
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.05
Cerezo Osaka
3.40
Draw
3.40
Fagiano Okayama
Double Chanceconsensus
1.29
Cerezo Osaka or Draw
1.29
Cerezo Osaka or Fagiano Okayama
1.71
Draw or Fagiano Okayama
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.69
Yes
2.06
No
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.04
Over 0.50 ▲
9.80
Under 0.50 ▲
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.26
Over 1.50
3.53
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.84
Over 2.50
1.90
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.07
Over 3.50
1.33
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
5.83
Over 4.50 ▼
1.13
Under 4.50 ▲
Draw No Betconsensus
1.49
Cerezo Osaka
2.48
Fagiano Okayama
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
13.75
Under 4.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.04
Over 5.50 ▲
9.90
Under 5.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.10
Over 6.50 ▲
5.98
Under 6.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.24
Over 7.50 ▲
3.72
Under 7.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.38
Over 8.50 ▼
2.80
Under 8.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.68
Over 9.50 ▼
2.06
Under 9.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.08
Over 10.50 ▼
1.67
Under 10.50 ▲
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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