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Luís Castro
Grêmio
Mirassol
Grêmio
4-1-4-1 · 4-3-3
Mirassol
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
583877 EUR · live
Home
1.31 · implied 76.3%
82.0%
+5.6 vs price
Away
26.0 · implied 3.8%
12.4%
+8.5 vs price
Draw
4.9 · implied 20.4%
5.7%
-14.7 vs price
Half time
989 EUR
Home
2.94 · implied 34.0%
68.0%
+34.0 vs price
Away
5.2 · implied 19.2%
23.1%
+3.8 vs price
Draw
2.16 · implied 46.3%
8.7%
-37.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
80551 EUR · live
Under
1.24 · implied 80.6%
82.8%
+2.2 vs price
Over
5.1 · implied 19.6%
17.2%
-2.4 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
492 EUR
Under
1.09 · implied 91.7%
91.9%
+0.2 vs price
Over
11.5 · implied 8.7%
7.9%
-0.8 vs price
13 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 2 clips
Player of the match
Match events
33'
Reinaldo · Foul
36'
Denilson · Foul
37'
⚽
C. Pavón1–0
Half-time · 1–0
45'+1
G. Martins · Foul
45'+2
B. Santos · Argument
46'
🔁
Fernandinho ◂ E. Carioca
46'
🔁
Shaylon ◂ Denilson
57'
🔁
G. Silva ◂ Alesson
58'
🔁
J. Cabral ◂ F. Amuzu
63'
🔁
A. Luis ◂ Japa
66'
🔁
Dodi ◂ J. Nardoni
66'
🔁
N. Moura ◂ Wallisson Luiz
81'
🔁
M. Braithwaite ◂ C. Vinícius
82'
🔁
L. Pérez ◂ E. Noriega
87'
C. Pavón · Argument
Full-time · 1–0
90'+6
Weverton · Time wasting
90'+8
Wallace · Time wasting
Coaches
Luís CastroRafael Guanaes 
Recent form
GrêmioDAMirassol1-1
LHBolívar0-1
DHFluminense1-1
LABolívar2-3
LAMirassol1-2
MirassolDHGrêmio1-1
WHRemo2-1
DAVasco da Gama1-1
WHGrêmio2-1
LAAthletico0-1
Where to watch
Prime Video
Prime Video
Prime Video
Prime Video
Prime Video
Match facts
Referee
Davi de Oliveira Lacerda
Kickoff
05 Aug, 22:30 UTC
Competition
Copa do Brasil
Highlights & clips
Grêmio
4-1-4-1 · 4-3-3
Mirassol
1
Weverton
6.7
27
Diego Caito
7.0
6
G. Martins
7.0
82
Wallace
7.5
23
Marlon
7.9
33
L. Pérez
6.5
↑ 82'
7
C. Pavón
7.9
20
M. Villasanti
6.6
17
Dodi
6.6
↑ 66'
77
J. Cabral
7.1
↑ 58'
22
M. Braithwaite
6.3
↑ 81'
23
A. Muralha
6.1
32
Igor Formiga
6.3
34
J. Victor
7.3
44
Gabriel
7.4
6
Reinaldo
7.2
17
Fernandinho
6.9
↑ 46'
25
N. Moura
7.0
↑ 66'
9
A. Luis
6.4
↑ 63'
7
Shaylon
6.7
↑ 46'
30
B. Santos
6.8
19
G. Silva
6.6
↑ 57'
Substitutes
12GG. Grando
4DW. Kannemann
54DP. Gabriel
3DW. Leonardo
14DM. Rocha
19ME. Noriega↓ 82'7.4
9MF. Amuzu↓ 58'7.1
5MJ. Nardoni↓ 66'6.8
37MG. Mec
95FC. Vinícius↓ 81'6.6
99FJ. Enamorado
30FM. Nascimento
Coach: Luís Castro
Substitutes
90GThomazella
18DElias
3DW. Machado
12DV. Luis
5MJapa↓ 63'6.5
8MDenilson↓ 46'6.4
80MWallisson Luiz↓ 66'6.4
55MG. Cazonatti
10MChico
77FAlesson↓ 57'6.3
95FE. Carioca↓ 46'6.2
96FC. Eduardo
Coach: Rafael Guanaes
Top stats
42%Possession58%
0.0Expected goals (xG)0.0
11Total shots13
3Shots on target1
3Big chances1
1Corners5
Shots
4Shots off target7
4Blocked shots6
6Shots inside box7
5Shots outside box6
2Hit woodwork0
3Big chances missed1
Attack
54Final third entries59
1Offsides0
14Free kicks14
1Fouled in final third1
Passing
350Passes469
271Accurate passes400
18/51 (35%)Long balls23/46 (50%)
2/8 (25%)Crosses8/29 (28%)
21Throw-ins20
Duels
53Duels47
56/104 (54%)Ground duels48/103 (47%)
15/30 (50%)Aerial duels16/31 (52%)
8/19 (42%)Dribbles13/30 (43%)
12Dispossessed17
Defending
35Tackles23
63Tackles won65
14Interceptions10
30Clearances20
53Recoveries56
Discipline
14Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
11Goal kicks6
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 61 bookmakers
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 58% · 1.70 @ betfair
CornersOver 9.5 corners 52% · 1.83 @ Betway
CornersOver 8.5 corners 63% · 1.50 @ Betway
Who winsGrêmio to win (DNB) 65% · 1.52 @ betfair
1X2Draw 30% · 3.35 @ 1xBet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 77% · 1.25 @ betfair
BTTSBTTS: No 52% · 1.94 @ betfair
1X2Grêmio to win 45% · 2.16 @ betfair
1X2Mirassol to win 25% · 4.18 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 59% · 1.62 @ Unibet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 67% · 1.46 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.06
Grêmio
3.08
Draw
3.71
Mirassol
Double Chanceconsensus
1.25
Grêmio or Draw
1.33
Grêmio or Mirassol
1.70
Draw or Mirassol
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.94
Yes
1.78
No
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.08
Over 0.50 ▲
7.47
Under 0.50 ▼
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.38
Over 1.50
2.84
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.22
Over 2.50
1.61
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
4.00
Over 3.50
1.21
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
8.61
Over 4.50 ▲
1.06
Under 4.50 ▲
Draw No Betconsensus
1.44
Grêmio
2.63
Mirassol
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.01
Over 4.50
17.00
Under 4.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.05
Over 5.50
10.00
Under 5.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.11
Over 6.50 ▼
6.00
Under 6.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.23
Over 7.50 ▼
3.66
Under 7.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.45
Over 8.50 ▼
2.53
Under 8.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.76
Over 9.50 ▼
1.94
Under 9.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.22
Over 10.50 ▼
1.57
Under 10.50 ▲
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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